Global shipments and port arrivals increase slightly, while iron ore prices continue to fluctuate rangebound [SMM Commentary]

After opening, DCE iron ore futures rose slightly today, pulling back slightly during the session. The most-traded contract I2509 eventually closed at 706, up 0.5% for the day. Traders sold goods in line with market conditions. At the beginning of the week, steel mills were cautious and adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with fewer inquiries. The market trading atmosphere was average. The mainstream transaction prices of PB fines in the Shandong region were around 710-713 yuan/mt, basically flat compared to the prices last Friday. The transaction prices of PB fines in the Tangshan region were around 720 yuan/mt, also basically flat compared to the prices last Friday.

The latest iron ore shipping data from SMM showed that global iron ore shipments increased slightly by 80,000 mt WoW last week, while port arrivals rose slightly by 240,000 mt, with limited overall fluctuations. By region, shipments from Australia and Brazil maintained a slight increase, while shipments from non-mainstream countries such as Peru, Iran, and India pulled back. The full-month shipments in June fell short of expectations, easing the supply pressure on iron ore to some extent. Port inventory is expected to maintain a slow destocking trend. Demand side, pig iron production is expected to continue a slight rebound this week, providing some support for ore prices. However, it is worth noting that as end-use demand enters the traditional off-season, the market's purchasing momentum is gradually weakening. Against the backdrop of high supply, the market remains cautious about future demand expectations, which will limit the upside room for ore prices. Overall, iron ore prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound in the short term.

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